88. Will no new real-money prediction market become bigger than Polymarket in 2022?
Basic
27
Ṁ1186resolved Mar 30
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
60% chance
Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?
Will Polymarket become legal and regulated in the US in 2025?
46% chance
Will Polymarket's daily trading volume reach or exceed $200 million at any point during the calendar year 2025?
20% chance
Will Manifold have real money markets with at least 1% of the active liquidity of Polymarket by end of 2025?
16% chance
Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?
Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?
78% chance
Will prediction markets become popular and used by 80% of the countries of the world by 2027?
9% chance
In Jan 2028, will prediction markets occupy a new product vertical? [Resolves to Poll]
14% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
1% chance