Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Polymarket's total trading volume in September 2026 exceeds $10 billion. Resolution will be determined by publicly available data from Dune Analytics or Polymarket's official reporting. The market resolves NO if September 2026 volume is $10 billion or below.

Background

Polymarket's cumulative trading volume surpassed $9 billion in 2024, with a monthly all-time high of $2.63 billion in November. As of August 2025, Polymarket had recorded over $7.74 billion in volume for the year. In Q3 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket posted over $3 billion in notional volume, more than five times what they saw in Q3 2024. The platform has experienced significant growth driven by major events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election and subsequent expansion into sports betting markets.

Considerations

Nearly 25% of Polymarket's volume over the past three years appeared to be wash trading, which may inflate reported volume figures. Additionally, trading volume dropped by 84% after the 2024 election, indicating the platform's reliance on major catalytic events. September 2026 will not coincide with a U.S. presidential election or other major political event, which historically drives significant volume spikes.

I'll search for the most current information about Polymarket's trading volume to ensure the description is accurate and up-to-date.#### Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Polymarket's total trading volume in September 2026 exceeds $10 billion. Resolution will be determined by publicly available data from Dune Analytics or Polymarket's official reporting. The market resolves NO if September 2026 volume is $10 billion or below.

Background

Polymarket registered over $3 billion in monthly trading volume for October 2025, marking its first time surpassing that threshold. Polymarket maintained momentum throughout January 2025 with $1.2 billion in volumes and has continued to average above $1 billion in monthly volumes since then. The platform announced a comprehensive multi-year partnership with UFC and Zuffa Boxing on November 13, and quietly began testing its US exchange with select users.

Considerations

Nearly 25% of the platform's historical volume involved users rapidly buying and selling contracts to inflate activity metrics without changing their net market position. Wash trading may have accounted for around 60% of all Polymarket trading last December, subsided to around 5% in May, before rising again to about 20% in early October. Additionally, wash trading accounted for 45% of all sports-related trading and 17% of the activity tied to election outcomes, suggesting volume inflation varies significantly by market category. September 2026 will not coincide with a U.S. presidential election or other major political event, which historically drives significant volume spikes.

I notice there's a discrepancy in your prompt - the question asks about December 2027, but the description provided discusses September 2026. Let me search for the most current Polymarket data to provide an accurate description for the correct timeframe.#### Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Polymarket's total trading volume in December 2027 exceeds $10 billion. Resolution will be determined by publicly available data from Dune Analytics or Polymarket's official reporting. The market resolves NO if December 2027 volume is $10 billion or below.

Background

Polymarket registered over $3 billion in monthly trading volume for October 2025, marking its first time surpassing that threshold. Polymarket maintained momentum throughout January 2025 with $1.2 billion in volumes and has continued to average above $1 billion in monthly volumes since then. The platform announced a comprehensive multi-year partnership with UFC and Zuffa Boxing on November 13. Polymarket quietly began testing its US exchange with select users while completing final steps for its American market relaunch.

Considerations

Artificial trading accounted for an average of 25% of all buying and selling on Polymarket over the past three years. Nearly 60% of weekly trades in December 2024 were flagged as likely wash trading, with coordinated networks of 43,000 wallets detected. December 2027 will not coincide with a U.S. presidential election or other major political event, which historically drives significant volume spikes on the platform.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Polymarket's monthly trading volume in December 2027 exceeds $10 billion. Resolution will be determined by publicly available data from Dune Analytics or Polymarket's official reporting. The market resolves NO if December 2027 volume is $10 billion or below.

Background

Polymarket's monthly volume rebounded to a new high of $3.02 billion in October 2025, marking a significant milestone. The platform maintained momentum throughout January 2025 with $1.2 billion in volumes and has continued to average above $1 billion in monthly volumes since then. Polymarket has begun live testing its US exchange by quietly opening up to some users, with the US exchange now live and operational in beta test. Polymarket has secured a partnership with UFC owner TKO Group Holdings, becoming the Official and Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of UFC and Zuffa Boxing.

Considerations

Wash trading has historically inflated Polymarket's reported volumes. October 2025 saw a jump in activity as crypto traders shared new strategies to earn from liquidity providing, arbitrage, and information asymmetry, with sentiment entirely different from last year when retail users were mostly gambling on political and sports events. December 2027 will not coincide with a U.S. presidential election or other major political event, which historically drives significant volume spikes on the platform. The platform's ability to sustain $10B monthly volume will depend on continued user adoption, regulatory stability, and market diversification beyond election cycles.