Resolution criteria

Polymarket's cumulative trading volume will be measured using Dune Analytics data. The market resolves YES if Polymarket's total trading volume for Sep ONLY reaches or exceeds $6 billion by September 30, 2026. The market resolves NO if total volume remains below $6 billion by that date.

Background

Polymarket's cumulative trading volume surpassed $9 billion in 2024, with a monthly all-time high of $2.63 billion in November. As of August 2025, Polymarket had recorded over $7.74 billion in cumulative volume for the year. In October 2025, Polymarket hit $3.02 billion in monthly volume with nearly 478,000 active traders. In the past 30 days (as of November 2025), Polymarket had $3.7 billion in trading volume.

Considerations

Nearly 25% of Polymarket's volume over the past three years appeared to be wash trading, according to Columbia University researchers. Wash trading volume peaked at 60% of total trading volume in December 2024, then crashed to less than 5% in May and bounced back to roughly 20%. Traders should account for the possibility that reported volume figures may include inflated activity from wash trading, which could affect the actual organic growth trajectory.