Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
851
15kṀ450k
2030
35%
chance

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/

  • Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market's resolution will be determined by the linked Metaculus market.

    • Resolution Source: This market will resolve as the Metaculus question Chinese Invasion of Taiwan resolves.

    • Guidance on Specific Scenarios: For inquiries regarding specific scenarios, such as whether a 'massive, successful blockade' would count, the resolution criteria and any clarifications on the linked Metaculus market should be consulted, as this market will follow its determination.

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Global Macro
Metaculus
China
Asia
China Taiwan potential conflict
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