37. Will the US unemployment rate (now 3.7%) be above 4% in November 2023?
74%
chance

This is question #37 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
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BTEbought Ṁ100 of YES

Seriously, this is basically the only benchmark for the fed at the moment. There is a better chance we have 10 percent or greate interest rates than less than 4 percent unemployment.

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BTEbought Ṁ100 of YES

Unless the fed reverses tact and starts cutting rates this is happening. This is one of the feds primary benchmarks for deciding when to stop raising and 4 percent ain’t high enough.