Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. unemployment rate reaches or exceeds 4.5% at any point before January 1, 2029. The unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The official monthly unemployment rate can be found on the BLS website: https://www.bls.gov/cps/. If the unemployment rate remains below 4.5% throughout the specified period, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 2025, the U.S. unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, according to the BLS. Historical data indicates that the unemployment rate has fluctuated over time, influenced by various economic factors. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020, the unemployment rate peaked at 14.9%, while in May 1953, it reached a record low of 2.5%. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% by late 2027 and then gradually decline, reflecting anticipated economic conditions and labor market trends. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61189

Considerations

Traders should consider that unemployment rates are subject to change due to various factors, including economic policies, global events, and technological advancements. While current projections suggest a peak of 4.4% by 2027, unforeseen circumstances could cause the rate to exceed 4.5% before 2029. Monitoring monthly BLS reports and staying informed about economic developments will be crucial for making informed predictions in this market.