Will the 12 month average, seasonally unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) go above 3% (YES) before the unemployment rate goes below 4% (NO)?
In other words, will price increases accelerate before there are more jobs?
Unemployment as of Oct 4 was 4.1%. Numbers are released on the first Friday of every month here.
Inflation is estimated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released every month. CPI as of September was 2.5%. Trend over time data here.
I’ll extend to the next releases date of each of these numbers until the question is resolved.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The 12 month average CPI will be measured according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official methodology as published in their monthly releases.
1,000
3.00I assume that by "average" you are referring to the geometric mean value (obtained by taking the value of the CPI for some month and dividing it by the value from 12 months prior) rather than the arithmetic mean value (obtained by adding up all the monthly % changes in CPI over the last 12 months, dividing by 12, and then annualizing by raising this figure to the 12th power)?
@Cactus I mean “average” in the sense that the BLS does when they release the number every month. Methods are included in these releases. See for example the release from Nov 13.
