Between Oct 15 2023 and EOY 2028, will the US unemployment rate be continuously above 8% for at least a year?
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4
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30%
chance
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1W
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Will resolve based on https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm or other BLS source if that page is deleted or unclear. 8.0% counts as "above 8%".
Historical data: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000?years_option=all_years
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