Will the number of children vaccinated with 3 doses of the R21 malaria vaccine reach 5M before January 1st, 2025?
Will the number of children vaccinated with 3 doses of the R21 malaria vaccine reach 5M before January 1st, 2025?
10
315Ṁ190Jul 2
36%
chance
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6H
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1M
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Resolves upon data from the WHO, UNICEF, or Gavi that >5 million children have been vaccinated with the primary series (3 doses >1 month apart) of the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2025. Resolves negatively if no confirmed data is available by July 1st, 2025.
1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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