Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?
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2026
38%
chance

This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a charity undertaking the same work is designated a "Top Charity" or a recipient of "All Funds" before the deadline. This resolves according to a statement from GiveWell or a credible news organisation.

 

It resolves "No" otherwise.

 

The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the “Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria" row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.

 

N.B. IPTi can be distributed for malaria reduction or other purposes. The grants must be given to fund (IPTi) for malaria, not a charity that largely does other work.

-- Note --

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-- Background --

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 12 charity areas with other areas of research in the pipeline including Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria.

The following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s explanation of the topic 

“Malaria is the fourth largest cause of death for children under 5 in sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 12% of deaths. It is transmitted from person to person by infected mosquitoes and involves flu-like symptoms, including fever. When a case of malaria is severe, it leads to life-threatening complications, particularly in children. It is also believed that malaria can cause permanent disability (hearing impairment, visual impairment, epilepsy, etc.).

Malaria is preventable with insecticide-treated nets and drugs (among other interventions), and it is treatable with drugs…

IPTi is a full therapeutic course of antimalarial medicine delivered to infants through routine immunization services, regardless of whether the child is infected with malaria. ... Treatment is given 3 times during the first year of life at approximately 10 weeks, 14 weeks, and 9 months of age, corresponding to the routine vaccination schedule of the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI)...

IPTi is a full therapeutic course of antimalarial medicine delivered to infants through routine immunization services, regardless of whether the child is infected with malaria. ... Treatment is given 3 times during the first year of life at approximately 10 weeks, 14 weeks, and 9 months of age, corresponding to the routine vaccination schedule of the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI)...

Overall, we believe there is strong evidence that IPTi reduces clinical malaria, which gives us a moderate level of confidence that it reduces deaths due to malaria…

We have created a modified analysis of 9 trials (with 10,308 participants in total), based on analysis 1.1 in Esu, Oringanje, and Meremikwu 2019.13 Evidence from the 9 trials suggests that IPTi reduced the number of cases of clinical malaria by 24% (95% confidence interval: 17-31%)...

We have a moderate level of uncertainty about the extent to which findings from trials will generalize to future implementation, though we haven’t explored this issue in depth yet…

The authors of Esu, Oringanje, and Meremikwu 2019 believe that, due to increasing SP resistance across Africa, SP may soon no longer be a useful drug in IPTi…

We found that IPTi may be highly cost-effective, and may be within the range of programs we would consider recommending funding…

We are aware of some potential negative impacts of IPTi. Based on a cursory investigation, they did not seem likely to significantly offset the programs’ positive impacts, so we have not prioritized looking into them further at this stage, though we may conduct additional research on these issues…”

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

I think they may have already done this, but with the name of “Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention” or maybe something similar.

predicts YES

@Trifalcon Maybe that’s a different thing? The SMC program was a top charity, so if so, this should clearly resolve to yes.

predicts YES

@Trifalcon It seems like IPTi and SMC are different, but similar things.

predicts YES

Estimated a 24% base rate among programs GiveWell listed in 2017 but had not given a grant too yet (https://www.givewell.org/research/intervention-reports/august-2017-version) but this one already has a scoping grant so not sure it applies here