This market resolves YES if Elon Musk ends up making more money from his purchase of Twitter than he would have by investing the same money in the NASDAQ, counting from when he made the initial offer to buy Twitter on April 14th.
This market will remain open until Elon Musk exits his ownership of Twitter, whether by IPO, acquisition, or otherwise. This market resolves YES if and only if the ratio of the Twitter's valuation at the time of that exit to its valuation in Musk's initial offer ($41.39 billion) is greater than the ratio of the close price of the Nasdaq Composite index (ticker ^IXIC) on the day of the exit to the close price on April 14th (13,351.08).
I'll count it as an exit if Musk sells most of his Twitter holdings, even if he keeps a minority stake. If Twitter goes public again, I'll look to its valuation at the end of its first day of trading. This market resolves if there's an IPO—Musk doesn't need to sell his shares.
Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Post-merger Valuation: After the merger, the value attributed to Musk’s Twitter acquisition will be 33/113 of the combined Twitter/xAI entity.
Exit Event Resolution: The market will resolve only when Elon Musk exits his ownership, which includes an exit if the merged company goes public.
Valuation Attribution: At the time of exit, 33/113 of the merged entity’s valuation will be used to determine the return on Musk’s Twitter acquisition.
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Post-merger, that-which-was-Twitter is now 33/113 of the combined Twitter/xAI entity.
Elon hasn't exited yet, obviously. This market will only resolve if and when he does, including if the merged company goes public.
When such an exit happens, I'll attribute 33/113 of the value of the merged entity to Musk's Twitter acquisition, and resolve this market accordingly.
@HillaryClinton it is a built messy. Nevertheless—the original idea of this market was to see if buying Twitter would end up as a good investment in pure financial terms, beating the benchmark.
To measure this, we need to be able to mark Twitter to market in some objective way. If Musk sells Twitter to some arms-length counterparty, that's one way of getting an objective valuation. Another is if he goes public with it.
Those were the possibilities in mind when this market was created. Admittedly, I didn't have a merger with another company he control in mind as a possibility.
So arguably yes, it could be considered an exit, but only in abrather technical sense, and not really in a way that matches what the market is measuring.
That said, I don't want you to feelistreated. If you feel strongly about this, and if you say you've lost mana betting with this in mind as a specific outcome,I'll send you mana to make it up to you.
@zzq I don't have a lot invested, let's see where this goes!
I would only add that a future company disclosure or buying may give a breakdown of the value for Twitter vs xAI.
Maybe don't be so strict on the 33/113 ratio if there is a specific breakdown eventually given in a buyout.