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MANIFOLD
In what year will X be worth more than what Elon acquired Twitter for?
18
Ṁ1kṀ2.1k
2030
0.6%
2023
0.8%
2024
88%
2025
5%
2030
6%
N/A (it won’t)

Elon finished his aqquisition of Twitter in Oct. 2022 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk

The buyout offer was for $44b. May 2023 Fidelity valued Twitter at $15b https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/twitters-value-plummets-by-two-thirds-musks-costly-acquisition-takes-a-hit-report-101685534330944-amp.html

Twitter is now being rebranded to X with the goal of "adding comprehensive communications and financial applications" https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/07/25/musk-explains-why-hes-rebranding-twitter-to-x.html

Will it ever be worth more than the buyout?

EDIT: Nominal value will be taken and years rounded.

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@lucaskohorst Is this enough to resolve?

In March 2025, Elon Musk's AI startup xAI acquired the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) in an all-stock transaction. The deal valued xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion (or $45 billion when factoring in $12 billion of debt). [1, 2, 3]

I believe the $12 billion debt is part of the $44B total acquisition price.
$45B > $44B so resolves to 2025? or maybe you just look at combined group value so $113B (or $125B) > $44B?

30 Jan 2026 XAI and SpaceX merged using values:
SpaceX and xAI finalized a massive merger establishing a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion. This valuation consists of SpaceX being valued at $1 trillion and xAI being valued at $250 billion

For xAI to have gone up in value from $113B to $250B it would seem that X must have gained in value from the combination. So if not 2025 then 2026 seems to do it? 2026 is nearer 2025.

Whichever merger you use (or failing those the June? 2026 IPO), it should, I believe, resolve as 2025.

I assume a purely nominal dollar value counts. Given the inflation 2030 seems possible. Or do you plan to calculate the „real“ 2023-dollar valuation?

If it happens in 2026, world you resolve 2025 the „closest one“ or 2030 the „next one“?

@MaxPayne Good questions. Nominal and would round to closest one.