Resolves YES if a Neuralink device is implanted into a human brain via a clinical trial study (as they advertised).
To ensure source legitimacy and the market’s integrity, it will RESOLVE YES when an official announcement of the Neuralink human implantation is published on a legitimate channel like a company announcement or clinical trials reference result (which should not be a problem if the milestone was achieved and will be out shortly like their previous announcements, with the last one being in September 2023). With the main example of Neuralink previously publishing an announcement on their first person to play pong. An Elon Musk tweet does not count as an official source.
Related questions
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Neuralink live streamed a demo with the first patient on Twitter.
Sufficient for a YES resolution @yasmeen?
@chrisjbillington Hi Chris, yup I will resolve the market to YES based on today’s patient demo on the official Neuralink channels.
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@GazDownright I think the market description is pretty clear that it won't resolve until something more than Elmo's tweet surfaces....
@MartinModrak Yeah, haven't got my ear to the ground on this one, so I'll assume that nothing else has been published.
@GazDownright yup martin is correct, in fact Nature even brought it up that “there is frustration about a lack of detailed information. There has been no confirmation that the trial has begun, beyond Musk’s tweet. The main source of public information on the trial is a study brochure inviting people to participate in it”. The market will resolve when the official announcement is made.
@SamuelRichardson The market will resolve YES if Neuralink just implants the device in a human brain. So it does not depend on if the implant later gets rejected or the patient passes away.
@yasmeen "To ensure source legitimacy and the market’s integrity, it will RESOLVE YES when an official announcement of the successful Neuralink human implantation"
What does successful mean in this sentence with regards to human implantation?
@SamuelRichardson If the device is implanted into a human brain through a surgery then it is considered “successful” — that’s the sole criterion for the market to resolve (as Neuralink claimed they could do it through their clinical trials). I hope that clarifies it, thanks sam.
So if they make an announcement of an unsuccessful implantation attempt (i.e. patient died) that's considered a successful resolution. That to me goes against what you wrote in the description of the market:
"it will RESOLVE YES when an official announcement of the successful Neuralink human implantation is published"
That's your description of the market yet it contradicts what you're saying the comments above. I'm not trying to lawyer you to death here, but the way I read that description was that it would require a success Neuralink human implantation to be considered YES which was one of the considerations I had when investing.
@SamuelRichardson the wording behind “successful” refers to the market’s title which is “Will Neuralink implant a device into a human’s brain by the end of 2024?” — if they do implant the device (regardless of the outcome) then it is a “success”, otherwise it is not. In retrospect, I would’ve just removed the word “successful” from the description if it made traders assume more than the market’s question. I’ll keep it in mind next time, thanks sam!
@GabeGarboden Curious to know how waiting for an official announcement by the company to confirm the first patient is a biased take? there’s no assumption that Elon lied, it’s simply a reasonable formality based on Neuralink’s history of announcing key milestones on their website per clinical trial protocols. With the main example of Neuralink previously publishing an announcement on their first person to play pong. None of the other markets for this prediction on manifold have resolved yes for this exact reason. It’s not fair for you to make it personal. Regardless, you did the right move of selling if this resolution criteria does not resonate with you.
Betting NO, just because Elmo lies so much (following https://joanwestenberg.com/blog/elon-musk-lies)
@MartinModrak The highlight of that article: “The onus should be on the media to confirm or disprove the man’s remarkable claims rather than parroting them as headlines. Especially on topics with technical complexity or potentially society-changing implications, establishing the truth and the current state of technology must be prioritised over clickbait. Standards of evidence should be enforced rather than mindlessly propagating the latest Musk soundbite.” 🙌
