Will North Korea engage in an active military conflict before 2026?
Plus
34
Ṁ28002026
95%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if at any point before 2026 North Korean troops are engaged in active combat (as reported by mainstream news agencies). Resolves NO on 01.01.2026 otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@yar3yar3 Can you expand on what you consider 'troops in active combat' for this market? Typically, how many, is it entire unit, must they be in the line of fire, or is engineering unit making a bridge enough; these kind of things.
Related questions
Related questions
Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?
10% chance
Will North Korea attempt to invade South Korea before 2035?
25% chance
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?
3% chance
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2024?
4% chance
Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon during 2024?
4% chance
Will any North Korean military action cause at least one South Korean military fatality in 2024?
12% chance
Will North Korea invade South Korea by 2035?
23% chance
Will North Korea attempt a major military invasion of South Korea by Jan 1, 2025?
4% chance
Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of 2024?
7% chance
[Polymarket] Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024?
2% chance