Background

This question is exploring whether AI labs in China would be able to compete with US on building AGI or whether sanctions will prevent them from competing effectively.

Resolution Criteria:

This question will be resolved as “Yes” if at least one condition is met.

Condition 1:

The Chinese AI model passes the Kurzweil version of the Turing test

Condition 2:

The Chinese AI model receives at least 90% score on FrontierMath benchmark and at least 90% score on Humanity’s Last Exam.

Fine Print:

It does not matter to this question if the Chinese AI lab steals model weights or documents from US labs. Also, it does not matter whether the AI lab is government owned or privately owned.

• Update 2025-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cutoff Date Clarification:

  • If the resolution year is 2041 and by that time China has not built AGI that meets the specified conditions, the market will be considered unresolved or not applicable.

  • This means that any AGI development occurring after 2040 will not count toward meeting the resolution criteria.