Will Ukraine be promised or provided ATACMS by Jan 31, 2023?
resolved Jan 31

Resolves YES immediately if before the closing date there is a credible official statement or mainstream news reports that Ukraine’s military (including aligned paramilitary forces) will receive or has received ATACMS missiles for ongoing war purposes.

Resolves NO otherwise.

OSINT reports may serve as proof, but they need to be self-evident and non-controversial. As a rule of thumb, they should be credible enough to be uncritically cited by Reuters as more than rumors, making this caveat mostly redundant.

Statements and offers conditional on the war ending – that would only come into effect after it ends – don’t count. If the war does actually definitely end before Jan 31, and only then missiles are promised or given, it also doesn’t count.

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Resolving NO. From 30 minutes ago, Reuters:

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is expected to include longer-range [GLSDB] rockets for the first time (…). The United States has rebuffed Ukraine's requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile.


Continuing here: https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-ukraine-be-promised-or-provide-250cfa9c45e2