Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2030?
Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2030?
19
1kṀ14492031
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@GastonKessler These things happen 🤷
But you can expect to have few traders on the market if there's a much larger market out there, so it's always best to check beforehand...
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Ukraine join NATO before the end of 2031?
33% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
21% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035?
33% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033?
34% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2040?
36% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
30% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?
36% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before the end of 2029?
19% chance
Will Ukraine be a member of NATO by mid 2035
27% chance
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?
36% chance