Resolves YES if all of the events listed below happen, in any realistic order:

• before the 2024 Election Day, at least two notable pundits mention Donald Trump noticeably lost weight,

• before the 2024 Election Day, Merrick Garland (or any official of the Department of Justice) files federal charges against Trump,

• Trump wins the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election,

• Trump drops out of the 2024 presidential election,

• before Democrats lose the White House, Joe Biden or any other democratic president grants Trump any pardon.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”

Jason Calacanis: “[Biggest political winner and loser for 2023.] I was looking at Biden and Trump and thinking, hmm, which one of these is going to have the big win in 2023. So they're two biggest, I think, players, I have a prediction for Trump. I think he's going to lose 50 pounds on the Ozempic. (…) I think he is going to be indicted by Garland. (…) And then he's going to win the nomination in 24. And we're going to have Trump versus Biden. But this is a crazy prediction here. I think we're going to have a settlement. I think he's going to agree to not run and get the pardon. This is a crazy prediction, I know. But I think he loses the weight, he wins the nom, he gets indicted, and then he gets the Richard Nixon pardon, global pardon for all of the shit he's done.”