Donald Trump gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032
9
130Ṁ1752032
24%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by the US president. Includes self-pardons. Includes secret pardons if we find out about them by EOY 2032, including secret pardons already issued prior to market creation.
Resolves NO if he dies without such action (so posthumous pardons don't count) or at the end of 2032.
Prosecutorial discretion doesn't count. Jury nullification doesn't count. Judicial sentencing discretion doesn't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@MarkIngraham Yes, current precedent is that the US president can pardon me for things I have not been charged with.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Donald Trump be pardoned before 2027?
24% chance
Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032
17% chance
Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?
1% chance
If Trump is convicted, will he be pardoned? (2028)
41% chance
Trump receives presidential pardon from Kamala or other Dem by mid 2029
7% chance
Will Trump pardon Diddy by the end of 2028?
14% chance
Will Trump Pardon SBF by the end of January 2029?
12% chance
Will Trump pardon tiger king by the end of 2026?
24% chance
If elected in 2024 will Trump issue more than 50 years in total in January 6th related pardons?
99% chance
Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will Joe Exotic be pardoned?
42% chance