If DeSantis runs and loses nomination to Trump in 2024, will he ever be President?
8
21
แน169แน170
2037
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If he doesn't run, or runs and wins nomination, this resolves N/A.
See also /YaakovSaxon/if-desantis-does-not-run-in-2024-wi
Otherwise I will leave the market unresolved for as long as it seems to me that he still might run again. If he becomes president during this time I will resolve YES.
At some point (probably not later than 2037) if it seems unlikely that he will run again (for instance he runs a couple of times and then seems to move on from politics) then I will probably resolve early to the best estimate I can find (presumably on Manifold) as to his remaining likelihood of ever becoming President.
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