If DeSantis runs and loses nomination to Trump in 2024, will he ever be President?
Mini
8
Ṁ1692037
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If he doesn't run, or runs and wins nomination, this resolves N/A.
See also /YaakovSaxon/if-desantis-does-not-run-in-2024-wi
Otherwise I will leave the market unresolved for as long as it seems to me that he still might run again. If he becomes president during this time I will resolve YES.
At some point (probably not later than 2037) if it seems unlikely that he will run again (for instance he runs a couple of times and then seems to move on from politics) then I will probably resolve early to the best estimate I can find (presumably on Manifold) as to his remaining likelihood of ever becoming President.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Related questions
If Donald Trump is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?
55% chance
Would Biden win the US Presidency in 2024 if his opponent is DeSantis?
56% chance
If DeSantis wins the Republican nomination, will he be the next president?
43% chance
If the 2024 Republican nominee is neither Trump nor Desantis, will the Republicans win the election?
58% chance
If Trump loses the 2024 election, will he run again in 2028?
43% chance
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis (R))
41% chance
If the Republican nominee wins Florida, will they win the presidency (2024)?
51% chance
Will Ron DeSantis ever be US President?
10% chance
Will Ron DeSantis be elected US President in 2024?
2% chance
Will Ron DeSantis ever be elected President?
9% chance