By the end of 2023, will Manifold be credibly blamed for seriously damaging someone's life by enabling their gambling addiction?
Jan 1

"Credible" doesn't have to come with significant hard evidence, I just have to believe it's likely true. e.g. it's not someone making a fake accusation to game this market or because they think prediction markets are unethical and want to damage their reputation.

Doesn't have to be clinically-diagnosed addiction, just has to be someone losing large amounts of money on Manifold to the point where it's making their life worse, but they kept doing it anyway due to some irrational compulsion.

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@IsaacKing Hey, could you please resolve this market? It's been a while since it closed.

predicts NO

Are there plans to resolve this market?

predicts NO
predicts YES

A couple users interacting with Manifold for over 10 hours / day for entire months qualifies as seriously damaging gambling addiction to me:
@chrisjbillington clarified these stats exclude API bets, so I still hope Manifold reconsiders their addictive gamification like streaks, leagues, quests, bonuses, etc

predicts NO

@PatMyron Maybe they are full-time trading on Manifold.

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update: gambled hundreds of dollars on that CE tournament and now my balance is negative

@PatMyron where is your limit order? )

So it was all lies and market manipulation 😢

Not cool

@NikitaSkovoroda not sure how that follows, but opened another limit order if you'd like to fill it

@PatMyron The new one isn't at 50% ))

Have your estimations decreased over the last few hours?

@NikitaSkovoroda no, just realizing this might take time to resolve

@PatMyron lies )

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not sure how that follows, but opened another limit order if you'd like to fill it

You just cancelled it btw, even the low one

Lies again

@NikitaSkovoroda just lowering the percent of the limit orders, not sure why that warrants personal attacks, they're just potential bets. Feel free to fill it at the lower percentage or not, but Manifold is addictive regardless

@PatMyron I don't consider any bets as problematic - all of those are perfectly fine

I consider commenting not in good faith on non-play markets problematic )

Which is something that you have been doing here and you know it

@NikitaSkovoroda Please stop it. You’re the one escalating. Pat is being very civil.

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Also, please don't consider it a personal attack -- I don't like what has been going on here, not anyone as a person. Sorry for making it look like that.

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you can see from our profit graphs that my Manifold usage is more based on many different markets resolving frequently rather than going as all in on specific markets

not sure how anyone would determine I acted in bad faith because I lowered my limit orders? but I am serious about finding Manifold problematic and would like to quit

predicts NO

@NicoDelon Ok. I have been writing the response above before your comment ). I'll refrain from leaving any more comments here today.

I can continue explaining why I see this as an issue, but probably some time later and perhaps not here. Feel free to DM me on Discord if you want to continue this discussion though via an explicit opt-in.

predicts YES

also ironically escalating my betting in this market as asked would lead to me betting borrowed mana... which would more directly meet this market's criteria if I lost it in this market 🤯

I'd also honestly probably add myself

Manifold is addicting enough (gamification like streaks, leagues, quests, bonuses, leaderboards, etc) that I've definitely compulsively wasted way too much time/effort on Manifold since signing up, which has a large opportunity cost

I've pretty intentionally avoided signing up for gambling sites, but I didn't realize how much of a gamified gambling site Manifold was until after signing up

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@PatMyron Same. Relevant:

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@PatMyron How much money did you directly lose on Manifold?

predicts NO

@NicoDelon Same question)

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@NikitaSkovoroda Ha! I’m proud to have never spent a dime on Manifold. Opportunity costs though: I waste a lot more time than I should here, which I could use to better ends.

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I don't think it counts for this question but I do agree that Pat does seem to have some addictions to Manifold. Both wanting to stop but also not being able to

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@NikitaSkovoroda not sure exactly how much time I've spent on Manifold, but would've spent more time working if I hadn't joined Manifold, and can make hundreds USD per extra hour worked

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This market wording explicitly requires loosing real world money directly due to addiction, as I read it.
And a significant amount of it to affect someones life.

I don't think that "Manifold makes me sad" or even "I loose my time on Manifold" qualifies here.

predicts YES

@NikitaSkovoroda I do think there are biases where people see losing X and missing out on gaining X as more fundamentally different than they should:

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