Follow up market!

@Yoav confused how these markets are clearly different and why this market resolved already. What if withdrawals just pause for the weekend while another bank acquires SVB's business and everyone's made whole by Monday?

Did SVB default or did the FDIC take over and pause everything for the weekend before it got to that point?

@PatMyron

On Friday, SVB was not able to repay deposits. Not clear if that was already the case before they were shut down, but certainly after they were shut down by the FDIC they weren't able to repay deposits (until Monday). I think that's enough to count as default. Definition from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/default2.asp

Default is the failure to make required interest or principal repayments on a debt

They were unable to may principal repayments on time. Even if the delay was 1 day, that's still a default.

@Yoav commented that this market was a duplicate, so they should resolve the same way if you think they're duplicates:

https://manifold.markets/SG/will-silicon-valley-bank-file-for-b#JRwY47Ttea5Rt5RolFTs

@PatMyron That was my mistake.

Unfortunately there's no way to delete or edit my comment. It looks like most other traders in the market took it to mean collapse or default, though.

I already arbitraged these markets because you said they were duplicates

@PatMyron Could I refund you?

@Yoav thoughts on n/a like the other market? Looks like I'm more or less all of the NO side

@PatMyron This shouldn't N/A. Bankruptcy and default are totally different things, so it's definitely a mistake to say they were a duplicate.

Author offering to refund you is like N/A-ing out your trades only, so that seems like the best solution.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1634237852975525889

@multivac Let me give 24 hours for anyone to object. Otherwise, this appears to qualify.

Does this qualify as a default? https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html

@alangrow This appears to qualify, but I'm giving 24 hours for anyone to object.