Will they collapse by the end of March?
There are rumors they are undercapitalized.
Mar 9, 9:11pm: Will Silicon Valley Bank default by the end of March? → Will Silicon Valley Bank default before April 1st?
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@Yoav confused how these markets are clearly different and why this market resolved already. What if withdrawals just pause for the weekend while another bank acquires SVB's business and everyone's made whole by Monday?
On Friday, SVB was not able to repay deposits. Not clear if that was already the case before they were shut down, but certainly after they were shut down by the FDIC they weren't able to repay deposits (until Monday). I think that's enough to count as default. Definition from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/default2.asp
Default is the failure to make required interest or principal repayments on a debt
They were unable to may principal repayments on time. Even if the delay was 1 day, that's still a default.
@Yoav commented that this market was a duplicate, so they should resolve the same way if you think they're duplicates:
https://manifold.markets/SG/will-silicon-valley-bank-file-for-b#JRwY47Ttea5Rt5RolFTs
@Yoav thoughts on n/a like the other market? Looks like I'm more or less all of the NO side
@PatMyron This shouldn't N/A. Bankruptcy and default are totally different things, so it's definitely a mistake to say they were a duplicate.