This market resolves to however many companies have filed for bankruptcy, closed down, or otherwise are insolvent. This includes takeovers and company sales if it was clear that they would have failed without it. And the bank's failure should be a primary factor in their distress.

Resolves a year from now.

This will resolve to the most credible estimate someone publishes that I find convincing and most closely matches the above criteria, which includes media articles, but amateur research is very much allowed and encouraged.

(Clarification : SVB itself counts as 1)