Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?
Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?
146
2kṀ36k
resolved Mar 19
Resolved
NO

Smarter people than I have told me Wells Fargo and RBC are contenders.

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predictedYES 2y

To be clear, this resolves March 18 at the end of the day PDT.

predictedNO 2y

@RahulShah they bought a irrelevant small branch.

predictedNO 2y

@MarkIngraham They snatched a ring fenced functional branch connected to a huge amount of customers that compliments their balance sheet. They could accommodate more deposits, so they bought a huge list for $1. Equity of £1.4b, 88m profits.

It’s relevant, but absolutely not sale of the SVB entity as it exists. SVB as a whole had 7.4b revenue in 2022

predictedNO 2y

@Gen Oh I cut too much from my comment- as a portion of tangible equity, it represents about 10% of SVB

predictedNO 2y

@Gen it was a $1 sale of a failed branch with no deposits remaining

predictedNO 2y

@MarkIngraham I chopped up my comment because it was super long and I really regret it

SVB UK represented about 10% of SVB

predictedNO 2y

@MarkIngraham Saying “a failed branch with no deposits remaining” is meaningless, because the entire bank is failed. Better to compare the highs to inform the difference rather than comparing worthless with worthless

predictedNO 2y

@Gen we agree it doesn't affect the outcome

predictedNO 2y

@MarkIngraham yes! 🙏☺️

predictedNO 2y

@Gen furthermore if the branch is in rhe UK, it has their deposit protection which is weaker and even smaller value.

2y

It takes months.

predictedNO 2y

@MarkIngraham Not in bank failure situations. Often, banks have failed Friday and been bought over the weekend.

predictedNO 2y

@jack Yep. $8 for Bear Stearns and WaMu in less than a week right?

predictedYES 2y

@jack But the issue is, large companies aren't allowed to buy medium sized companies in the United States anymore, or at least havn't been for the last 18 months.

predictedNO 2y

@GaryGrenda This is not a normal merger. The government is actively trying to sell SVB.

predictedNO 2y

@jack that makes it less likely to happen because of desperation

predictedYES 2y

@jack The govt is not a monolithic entity. It was already reported FDIC actively blocked (or was told to implicitly block) the largest 4 banks from acquiring SVB. Just because one part of the govt is trying to sell SVB doesn't mean another park isn't licking their chops ready to sue. Bank execs know this.

predictedNO 2y

@GaryGrenda No bank can hold more than 25 percent of national deposits. That's the reason for the restricted mergers. Biden can issue an exception though...

predictedNO 2y

Something similar happened in last crises. LTCM failed in 1998, Lehman failed, they were able to isolate it for a while then a year or two later total collapse. Small numbers will fail then 2025 obliterated

predictedYES 2y

@BTE I dont think SVB would put all 4 of those over the 25%, if any of them.

2y

at what point will this resolve? 1 share from 1 bank? 100% owned by financial institutions? 100% owned by 1 financial institution?

predictedYES 2y

@Gen If most of the bank is owned by financial institutions aside from FDIC/DNIB Santa Clara. It would require more than just the branches being sold to someone, for example.

2y

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