Will Silicon Valley Bank uninsured depositors be made whole?
30
93
630
resolved Mar 13
Resolved
YES

Will all uninsured accounts be made whole by closing (Dec 31, 2025)? Resolves based on announcements from FDIC, SVB, or articles from reputable media sources.

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predicted YES

Closing this market since it looks like it will resolve yes. Any objections?

@Yoav Eh, there's always a chance that the asteroid hits the earth tonight and prevents this. What's the harm in waiting until tomorrow?

predicted YES

@fortenforge I think they mean they'll only close it, but not resolve until tomorrow. Personally I'm unclear of the point of closing prior to resolution - why not allow people to keep trading over those last few percentage points?

predicted YES

Sure

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337

After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors. Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13.

bought Ṁ160 of YES

@Gabrielle Yep. 24 hours for objections.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Matt Levine also believes that depositors will be made whole, simply because it would be really bad for the fed, the FDIC, and other banks to not set this precedent.

sold Ṁ41 of NO

Actually after reading some more, it seems that large banks that have failed have rarely suffered a loss on uninsured deposits: https://www.cato.org/commentary/fdic-invents-costly-solution-imaginary-problem#

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@jack Interestingly, both of the large examples included a buyout from another bank.

bought Ṁ80 of NO

Unfortunately, my understanding is that uninsured depositors will likely get most of their money back, but not all. And, the process for getting their money may take a long time (years) to fully wrap up (although it sounds like at least some of the money will be paid out quickly - "The FDIC will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend within the next week"

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@jack If SVB is bought, could it not be immediate?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Yoav Can they still be bought? I don't really know how the process works after the FDIC has closed them down.

predicted YES

@jack I'm not sure. There is still a company there, even if the bank itself is in receivership. My understanding is also that they have more assets than deposits, but the assets (specifically MBS) are worth much less if they are sold right now because of interest rates.