Will drones become restricted similarly to guns in the US by 2030?
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With the rise of drone use in warfare, some believe we're in the "golden age" of civilian drone use. Do you think that drones will become more restricted due to the ease with which they can be converted to weapons?
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@BrunoParga Yeah, they're far less restricted than any other Western country but you still have to do a background check if you buy them in a store etc. There are ways of getting around that (buying at a gun show, buying privately etc.) but for the sake of the question I'm effectively asking if buying a drone off the shelf won't be an option anymore.
@BrunoParga I was simplifying for the sake of clarity. Guns are restricted in the US, I'm not really sure where the confusion is - maybe you could clarify?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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