By 2030 will regulations or laws make it prohibitively difficult to develop AI models in the United States?
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Resolves yes if on Jan 1st 2030 AI companies have stopped developing frontier AI models in the United States because US regulations or laws have made it prohibitively expensive, difficult, or impossible. Also resolves yes if nobody is developing frontier models anywhere.
Additionally, resolves yes if model development stops because courts rule that AI training violates current copyright laws.
Resolves no if AI companies stop developing frontier models in the US for some other reason, such as if the United States government is destroyed or they relocate to other countries because they have superior research talent.
Some examples include a law requiring companies to get permission to train on copyrighted works or restrictive caps on the number of training FLOPs
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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