This market will be one of several that uses Manifold's binary market mechanism to span a range of nominal GDP outcomes. The final outcome will be determined by the BEA's advance estimate for 2022 full year nominal GDP estimate, typically published on the last Thursday in January, 2023. BEA publishes this data at this link (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2) Table 1.1.7, Line 1. Annual nominal GDP is also posted on FRED in easier to read format: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RP1A027NBEA. Other markets: will nominal GDP growth exceed 10% in 2022: https://manifold.markets/MichaelElgart/q2-2022-us-nominal-gdp-growth-rate Nominal GDP targeting is a proposed monetary policy mechanism to replace specific inflation targeting of the Federal Reserve (see https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf). Jun 29, 9:28am: Please note this is NOMINAL GDP growth, not real GDP growth, which is the typically reported number in headlines. Nominal GDP growth = real GDP + inflation.

Close date updated to 2023-01-25 11:59 pm