Will US productivity growth be >= 2% (annualized) over the next 5 years?

1.2kṀ5172

2029

79%

chance

ALL

from end of 2023 to end of 2028

Based on BLS non-farm labor productivity (output per hour)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS85006091

Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers

Graph and download economic data for Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers (PRS85006091) from Q1 1948 to Q2 2023 about per hour, productivity, output, sector, nonfarm, business, real, persons, rate, and USA.

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US real GDP growth in Q2 2025?

1.13

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58% chance

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56% chance

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2% chance

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15% chance

Will weakly general AI double US total factor productivity growth within ten years?

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bought Ṁ30 YES

which country? World?

@RemNi US. See description for source. I’ll update title to clarify.

Is this about the world economy?

Rana G boughtṀ10YES

As long as the startup industry keeps pushing the technologically feasible, magnified by corporates pressured to hire consultants to transform to compete

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Will US Q2 GDP be positive?

77% chance

Will US inflation be >= 2% (annualized) over the next 5 years?

88% chance

Will US population growth be >= 0.5% (annualized) over the next 5 years?

23% chance

US real GDP growth in Q2 2025?

1.13

Will US Total Factor Productivity grow in 2024?

88% chance

Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet?

58% chance

Will the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?

56% chance

Will US Real GDP accelerate dramatically over 2023-2025?

2% chance

Will US GDP growth be greater than 10% in 2029?

15% chance

Will weakly general AI double US total factor productivity growth within ten years?

70% chance

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