Will there be a Big Tech AI assistant consumer product using a LLM by the end of 2024?
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chance

In order for this to resolve yes, the assistant would need to have some device integration with another service like Siri or Google assistant can read your incoming text messages or Alexa can turn on your smart lights. Other examples of assistant integration: launching navigation in maps, checking your calendar for meetings, setting a timer, etc.

Preferably we should also be able to point to a specific model that is being using i.e. Gemini, GPT-4, Claude 2, Llama 2.

This explicitly resolves yes if Google Assistant, Siri, or Alexa is using a LLM in an existing product. Meta's virtual assistant in the Quest 3 would also count if it is using an LLM.

Cortana or Bing is more ambiguous since they don't currently have deep device integrations. Bixby would count but I would be shocked if that's what resolved the market.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

I made my "Yes" based on a mistake. On my (Google) phone, if I enter a question in the assistant bar, it frequently pulls up both a generative AI result and search results. However, I just discovered that if I use the verbal entry, it does a bog-standard search. So, this was confusion based on the UI. I think the verbal one is actually the "assistant," and the written one is "Google search" - even if I use voice typing to enter the text. (For me, Google Search has the "generative AI" labs feature turned on.) I suspect that does not count.

I'll have to think about whether to sell.

@EricMoyer On Pixels the bar is a shortcut to search your phone or search the web. You can't type into the bottom bar "play the news", "navigate to McDonald's", or "do I have any meetings today?" to have it launch or query the respective apps automatically as required by this market.

Now, they could change what counts as "Google Assistant" in the future and to avoid that I've set up this definition of service integration. The market so far thinks it's pretty likely though and I think that makes a lot of sense.