Will OpenAI and Google models have a 100+ point Elo lead in the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2024?
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2025
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Daron Acemoglu wrote an article with a series of vague AI predictions for 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240110122026/https://www.wired.com/story/get-ready-for-the-great-ai-disappointment/.

One of which is there will be "the emergence of a duopoly in the industry, with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI dominating the field with their gargantuan models."

A 100 point Elo lead seems hardly dominant, but it's much easier to measure.

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

If the top OpenAI and Google models BOTH have a 100 Elo rating higher than any model of another organization, this resolves YES.

As of the beginning of market, GPT-4-Turbo has an ELO of 1249, the highest of any OpenAI model. Google's highest model is Gemini Pro (Dev) at 1121. While the highest of any other org is Anthropic's Claude-1 at 1150. If this were to resolve today, it would resolve NO since Claude-1 is actually higher than Google's best model.

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I'm guessing Claude 3's release today will make this less likely.

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