What will be "March 2020" for AGI?
10
1.8kṀ1027
2030
45%
A government declaration/statement (any country)
41%
Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)
41%
Military activity / posture change
41%
AI-related political movement (pro or anti)
41%
Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances
41%
A private company declaration/statement (any company)
41%
A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)
41%
Open source model release
41%
Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model
41%
Reports of aerial devices/machines
41%
Reports of market activity
41%
AI-related corruption scandal
41%
AI-related theft
41%
A new war between nation states
41%
AI-related resignation
41%
Reports of activity on blockchain networks
41%
Reports of activity in online communities
41%
Reports of activity on internet-connected servers
41%
Reports of activity in open source software
41%
A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

From Dwarkesh Patel:

"I think we're at what late February 2020 was for COVID, but for AI. If you're paying attention, you kind of have an idea of the general direction in which the world is headed. You know that as was the case with COVID, within a very short amount of time, every single world leader, every single CEO, every single institution, members of the general public are going to realize pretty soon that the main thing we as a world are dealing with is COVID, or in this case, AI."

Market resolves to the first event that causes AI to become widely viewed as humanity's central challenge, similar to how COVID-19's pandemic declaration in March 2020 sparked global mobilization.

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