mRNA-4157 is a personalized cancer vaccine therapy. Short version of how it works: patient gets cancer -> cancer is sequenced -> vaccine is designed to target that sequence -> patient is injected with the mRNA vaccine.
This is the phase 2 trial: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03897881
Resolves yes if a phase 3 trial starts, not just if it passes.
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Well something's happening: https://www.yahoo.com/now/merck-moderna-announce-exercise-option-111500463.html
Thanks for making this market! I think people in medicine are frequently wrong about the likelihood of investigational drugs succeeding, so it's fertile ground for betting. I think Vincent's suggestion of 20-30% is about right for the chance of a phase 2 trials transitioning to phase 3. At the time of this writing the market stands at 44%, so it's time to buy some shares of NO.
@ian Okay, sure. The underlying vaccine design algorithm (which I co-wrote) looks at the mutations present in the patient's tumor, scores all of them based on how likely they are to be targetable by the patient's immune system, selects the top n, then manufacturing produces an mRNA that produces a protein encoding each of those mutations. I cannot talk about the specifics of how the scores are produced, but this paper (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5577644/) from one of our competitors talks about some details.
If you want my opinion on the market: conditional on it passing phase 2 I think it's very likely Moderna would start a phase 3, unless they thought it was a very weak pass. I would put 20-30% on it passing phase 2 (which is actually higher than I put on it when I worked on the project, its phase 1 performance was better than expected).