Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?
18
1kṀ6302041
26%
Birch Swinnerton Dyer Conjecture
25%
Navier-Stokes
21%
Riemann Hypothesis
12%
Yang-Mills Mass Gap
12%
Hodge Conjecture
3%
P vs NP
1.5%
Other = a prize yet to be added to the Millenium prize list
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bought Ṁ5 YES1y
Working on Yang Mills mass gap so I can reap that sweet mana in addition to my million bucks.
@BoltonBailey The combination of introducing fees and eliminating loans totally broke arbitrage. Just forget about having two markets for the same question trade at the same price.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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