EDIT: fixing resolution criteria directionality about amateurs

The Millennium Prize Problems are seven famous open problems in math, all listed together in 2000. One was solved; as of 2024, six remain. Will the next one be solved by an amateur? This market resolves YES if the very next problem to be solved is solved by an amateur, and NO otherwise. The close date will be extended as needed.

For the purpose of this market:

• A problem is considered to be "solved" if

  • the Clay Mathematics Foundation or similar recognizes it as solved

  • a proof is published, and there is a general consensus within the mathematical community that such a proof is a solution to one (or more, if applicable!) of the Millennium Prize Problems

  • or a proof of the problem is published, which automatically validates as correct in a standard interactive theorem prover (eg Lean, Coq, Metamath, etc)

• A person is considered to be or not be a "mathematical amateur" as follows:

  • If they are known to be a professor at some college or university, have received a PhD in mathematics, or similar, then NO.

  • If they are known to have not received any such kind of education like this, then YES.

  • If they are not identifiable in real life but they have somehow proven/discovered many deep/unintuitive theorems which are well-accepted by the mathematical community anyways, then NO.

  • If they are not identifiable in real life and/or their education, background knowledge, and/or is not known, then YES by default unless evidence emerges to the contrary.

  • The above criteria only apply if the solver is a single, real human. If the solver consists of an AI, then NO, unless that AI happens to be highly sentient/conscious like a real human is.

  • If the solution is found by multiple people, and some of them are amateurs, then this resolves PROB to the fraction of the proof written by the amateur authors as subjectively judged by me and/or the Manifold mods based on author contribution statements (or #amateur authors/#total authors if individual author contributions are not disclosed).