Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
57
1.2kṀ5644
2026
46%
chance
Small number arithmetic in the training set is fine, as is non-arithmetic. "Small" and "large" are relative: if the training set contains arithmetic up to 20 digits and it generalizes to 100 digits, the question resolves yes. I'll accept a subset of arithmetic as well, e.g. if it can only do large number addition but not multiplication the question resolves yes.
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy