Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Will >50% of the tasks in the WebArena benchmark be solved by EOY 2024?

Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?

HumanEval 90% #2: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2025?

HumanEval 90% #3: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2026?

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?

Will an AI agent system be able to score at least 40% on level 3 tasks in the GAIA benchmark before 2025.