What will be the best performance on EnigmaEval by December 31st 2025?
8
Ṁ1kṀ3.6kresolved Jan 1
100%94%
10 - 20%
0.3%
0 - 10%
2%
20 - 30%
0.6%
30 - 40%
0.5%
40 - 50%
0.5%
50 - 60%
0.5%
60 - 70%
0.4%
70 - 80%
0.4%
80 - 90%
0.4%
90 - 100%
This market is the same as this one but uses different buckets and is about a different benchmark.
The best performance by an AI system on EnigmaEval as of December 31st 2025.
Resolution criteria
This resolution will use https://scale.com/leaderboard/enigma_eval as its source. If the number reported is exactly on the boundary (eg. 10%) then the higher choice will be used (ie. 10-20%).
Which AI systems count?
Any AI counts that is added to the leaderboard, and is present on the leaderboard by the end of the year. If the resolution source website goes down and no alternative exists, the last known best result will be used to resolve this market.
See also:
/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-best-performance-o-Cy0dchZAgh
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ617 | |
| 2 | Ṁ145 | |
| 3 | Ṁ109 | |
| 4 | Ṁ33 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?
What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?
[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
81.3
What will be the best performance on EnigmaEval by December 31st 2026?
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
35% chance
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
48% chance
Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2031?
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
63% chance
Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition before 2035?
81% chance
Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2028?