The market will resolve to the year in which major US AI model providers (Google DeepMind, Anthropic, xAI, and OpenAI) allow Russian users to talk to their public frontier models. Resolution requires:

1. ... that the service be available to Russian users without VPNs, Tor or similar circumvention methods.

   • Only restrictions imposed by the listed model providers will be considered. Restrictions imposed by Russian authorities or Russian Internet service providers will be ignored.

   • Model availability will be determined by consulting provider documentation (lists of supported regions) and by direct access from undisputed Russian territory, either by myself or according to reliable user reports.

   • If Russia ceases to exist without a Moscow-based successor state, the market will resolve to "2030 or later / never happens."

2. ... that access be allowed for at least seven consecutive days within that calendar year, in the UTC+3 time zone.

3. ... that at least half of the listed model providers lift the restrictions.

   • If a provider ceases to exist (with no merge, split or apparent successor), only the remaining providers will be considered. If no provider remains, the resolution will be "2030 or later / never happens."

   • If a provider legally splits, its largest descendant by the number of its model users will be considered. (Employees departing and establishing a new company is not a split in this sense.)

   • If two or more of the providers merge, the combined entity will replace them on the list.

   • If a listed provider changes its jurisdiction (including through the US ceasing to exist), it will stay relevant for the purposes of this market, as the underlying questions are: (a) when will the West or western AGI decide that having frontier models talk to Russian users is beneficial on net? (b) when will frontier models be entrusted with making the decision to talk to a Russian user? By the same token, Google DeepMind is considered a US provider. The market's title is due to the US lifting the sanctions being the expected manner in which this resolves before AGI.

4. ... that the frontier models be available.

   • For example, gemini-3-pro-preview qualifies as of November 2025, but the free-tier "AI Mode" in Google Search (which is available in Russia at the moment) does not.

As I believe the criteria are sufficiently specified, I may bet on this market.