In June 2026, a US Commerce Department export-control directive forced Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals, producing a 19-day global outage before controls were lifted on June 30. This market asks whether the mechanism fires again in near future for the same or different frontier models.

Resolves YES if:

between market creation and June 30, 2027, ALL of the following occur:

1. Government-mandated. A US government body orders or legally compels a US-based AI developer to suspend or restrict access to one of its models.

   • Voluntary company decisions, commercial outages, capacity restrictions, safety-motivated self-imposed pauses, and compliance with foreign law (e.g., an EU AI Act withdrawal) do not count.

2. Frontier model. The affected model is considered, at the time of restriction, among the developer's most capable generally available model families, or is widely described in credible reporting as a frontier model.

   • Developers in scope: Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta, Microsoft AI, or any other US lab credibly at the frontier at the time.
     

3. Allied users affected. The restriction removes or materially degrades access for users (individuals, companies, or governments) in at least one of: EU member states, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Norway, Switzerland - or for "foreign nationals" as a general category.

   • Restrictions targeting only adversary jurisdictions (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, etc.) or specific sanctioned entities do NOT count.
     

4. It takes effect. Access is actually cut or blocked for ≥72 hours. Announced-then-rescinded-before-implementation does not count.
   
   

Edge cases:

• Re-imposition of controls on Fable 5 / Mythos 5 counts.
  

• A newly released frontier model launched US-only because government export-control requirements compel it counts, if credible reporting confirms the restriction is government-mandated rather than a business or capacity choice.
  

• Partial degradation (e.g., allied users capped to a meaningfully weaker tier by government mandate) counts if the frontier tier itself becomes unavailable to them.
  

• Evidence standard: an official government statement, a company statement citing a government order, or consistent reporting in credible outlets.