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MANIFOLD
Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ140
Dec 31
30%
chance

This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.

"Restricted to US persons" is used loosely, for intent. The market does not turn on the formal legal definition (citizens, green-card holders, etc.). What matters is that a model is gated to the US / people in the US / US residents / US nationals by law or policy, and most of OpenAI's usual foreign user base cannot use it.

Resolves YES if OpenAI releases or operates any model (via ChatGPT, the API, or any OpenAI product) that becomes subject to a US-only restriction through any of:

  • Geography — available to users accessing from within the US but withheld from a substantial share of the countries OpenAI normally serves (UK, EU, Canada, Japan, India, Australia, Brazil, etc.).

  • Residency — gated to US residents (e.g. requiring proof of US residency to access).

  • Nationality / US-person status — restricted to US persons / US nationals, including a US government export-control or "deemed export" directive of the kind issued against Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 / Mythos 5 on June 12, 2026.

Market context
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