This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, a weapon launched by Iran lands in or causes damage to the al-Aqsa compound. If no such incident is reported by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

• A "weapon" is interpreted widely but within reason: a ballistic missile or part thereof, a drone or part thereof, and so forth.

• The weapon must be launched from a territory controlled by the current Iranian government or its successors.

• That is, territories controlled by Iranian proxies such as Hamas do not count; while territories widely reported as under the control of the IRGC, Artesh or Faraja do.