Will Nassim Taleb publish a new book in 2026?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ192Dec 31
66%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See information and history in the bet for 2025:
Will Nassim Taleb publish a new book in 2025? | Manifold
When things change I'll add the news.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Does this follow the linked 2025 criteria: a complete online draft counts, or all clearly identified chapters published, while reissues do not? And would a new Technical Incerto volume qualify too, or is this specifically The Lydian Stone?
Taleb’s official CV still lists volume 2, Fragility, Risk, and Convexity, as TK: https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/CV.htm . That broader online-publication route matters when interpreting the absence of a dated bookstore release. I haven’t taken a position.
People are also trading
Related questions
In which year will Nassim Nicholas Taleb publish his next book
Will Chris Olah publish a textbook before 2027?
9% chance
Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?
6% chance
Will Dwarkesh Patel be a NYT bestselling author before 2027?
1% chance
Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
25% chance
Sam Altman publishes a book by mid 2028
45% chance
Will there be another Charlie Kaufman novel before 2028?
64% chance
Ramez Naam publishes a novel before 2031
47% chance
Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?
23% chance
What details will be true about Tim Ferriss' next book?