
Will Chris Olah publish a textbook before 2027?
5
100Ṁ1362027
17%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Presumably the subject would be mech interp. He must be a primary author.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Nassim Taleb publish a new book in 2026?
72% chance
Will someone write the book "Paul Christiano and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
51% chance
Will Joe Biden publish an autobiography by the end of 2030?
43% chance
Will Luigi Mangione publish a book before 2030?
41% chance
Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
22% chance
Will David Deutsch write a Textbook on Quantum Physics before he dies?
71% chance
Will Elizabeth Holmes have published a best-selling book before 2045
25% chance
Will the 11th edition of Mankiw's "Principles of Economics" be released before 2028?
64% chance
Sam Altman publishes a book by mid 2028
45% chance
Will someone write the book "Sam Altman and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
45% chance