Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Elon Musk officially forms a new political party in the United States. Official formation is defined as Musk publicly announcing the creation of the party and filing the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to establish the party's legal status. Verification will be based on official FEC records and credible news reports.
Background
In June 2025, Elon Musk publicly criticized President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," a significant tax-and-spending package. Musk labeled the bill a "disgusting abomination" and expressed concerns over its potential to increase the national deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion. In response to the bill's passage, Musk suggested the formation of a new political entity, tentatively named the "America Party," aiming to represent the centrist majority of Americans. This proposal emerged amid escalating tensions between Musk and Trump, with the latter threatening to review and potentially cut federal subsidies to Musk's companies, such as Tesla and SpaceX. (time.com, reuters.com)
Considerations
The establishment of a new political party in the U.S. involves navigating complex legal and bureaucratic processes, including state-specific ballot access requirements and compliance with FEC regulations. While Musk's substantial resources could facilitate these steps, the actual formation and operationalization of a new party within the specified timeframe remain uncertain. Additionally, Musk's previous political engagements have been marked by shifts in allegiance, which may influence the likelihood of him following through on this initiative. (time.com)
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But Musk reversed course less than two weeks later, when he called for the creation of a third party.
@mckiev If you are that confident, I hope you're also betting real money somewhere! You appear to be 15-20% more confident than the median predictor.
@Panfilo Oh, nvm, I don't like Kalshi. Just deposited 10k there and rage withdrawn it after 9960 arrived (0.4% commission wasn't disclosed during the deposit process). f this
“This filing is false and has been reported as such to the FEC” https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185#m
@LucaM He's the CFO of Tesla https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaibhav_Taneja
@bh It's there on the website, they're lying. They shared a filtered search of the site, if you get rid of the filter, as of right now, it's under raw filings https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=efiling&min_receipt_date=07%2F05%2F2025&max_receipt_date=07%2F06%2F2025
There are even multiple filings under similar names https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=efiling&q_filer=American&min_receipt_date=07%2F05%2F2025&max_receipt_date=07%2F06%2F2025
Could all be fake, but they aren't being transparent about what you can find by searching a very simple website.
@ian It was already debunked by Musk on twitter. There were a whole wave of squatters, including this.
@AhronMaline Aside from the obvious typo, it seems pretty clear - clearer than most other markets on this topic.
It should definitely have the description fixed, though. And probably the close date extended.