52-wk high 299.29

So max market cap = 778.6 / 248.48 * 299.29 = ~$938 B

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/market-cap
shows $931.65 B but that might just be of closing values.

bought Ṁ3,000 of NO

@ChristopherRandles the resolution sources shows the correct number

bought Ṁ3,000 of NO

@MarcusAbramovitch that source is specified but it just shows values at weekly intervals in the graph whereas the title is quite clear that it is at anytime. So seemed worth calculating peak value in 2023.

Fortunately both are under $1 T

bought Ṁ20,000 of NO

Resolves No

predicted NO

Will TSLA Gross Profit ever catch up to that of Ford?

Will TSLA make higher Gross Profit in Q4?

Will TSLA pass Ford in Q1, 2024?

predicted NO

Tesla beats analysts estimates by 20%!

In breaking news, Tesla delivered 20% more cybertrucks than analysts projected. A total of 12 Cybertrucks were delivered at this event.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-delivery-event-details-10-vehicles-2023-11

predicted NO

@Berg what's your rationale for a 31%+ increase of Tesla's share price in the next 31 days?

predicted NO

@LeonardoKr It is a volatile stock. It went up 60% in January. A 5% chance of doing so in December is not unreasonable. Sell your NO while you can!

In opposition to the prospect of Tesla exceeding a $1 trillion market cap by 2023's end, several points merit consideration. Initially, historical data reveals a pattern of volatility. After briefly touching the $1 trillion valuation in 2021, Tesla's market cap receded below $800 billion by March 2023, indicative of the stock's susceptibility to market dynamics. (Schafer, 2023)

Furthermore, the EV market's competitive landscape is evolving rapidly. Established automotive players and emerging entities are intensifying their EV initiatives, potentially threatening Tesla's market dominance and valuation growth.

Economic variables also play a crucial role. For instance, Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments have previously impacted Tesla's stock price, showcasing the economic dependencies that could sway investor sentiment and Tesla’s valuation.

Moreover, global supply chain disruptions could hinder Tesla's production and delivery timelines, adversely affecting its revenues and, by extension, its market cap.

Lastly, the fluctuating nature of investor sentiment, which recently buoyed Tesla shares by 130%, can reverse based on myriad external factors, posing a possible hurdle to achieving the $1 trillion valuation by 2023. (Schafer, 2023)

It is unlikely that Tesla will reach a $1 trillion valuation by the end of 2023 for a variety of reasons. Regulations, geopolitical events, and economic conditions all have an impact on the stock market's volatility. The electric vehicle (EV) market is becoming more competitive for the automotive sector, which may have an effect on Tesla's market share and financial success. Price reductions are putting pressure on Tesla's profit margins, which is affecting the company's premium valuation. Growth may be hampered by unforeseen production and supply chain issues. For instance, since outside variables like geopolitics and economic volatility affect the valuation, the Cybertruck's launch may not have the final say in the matter.

Tesla Valuation Challenges:

1) The volatility of the stock market

2) increasing rivalry in the market for EVs

3) pressures on profit margins

4) Production and supply chain risks

5) outside variables such as unstable economies and geopolitics

6) Decrease in entry to new markets

@dogiparthiraviteja I guess, at the very least, thanks for reminding us that LLMs are dogshit at reasoning/writing and that the AI-safety/AI-pause people are deranged and crazy.

I find it unlikely that Tesla will reach a $1 trillion market cap, especially before the end of 2023. While Tesla briefly achieved this milestone at the close of October 2021, its market performance has since seen a decline, currently hovering around the $800 billion mark.

Although Tesla has experienced sales growth, it's facing rapidly increasing competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market. This heightened competition poses a potential threat to Tesla's market share. To stay competitive, Tesla has reduced the prices of its EV models multiple times in recent years, likely aimed at increasing sales. However, this price competition might also impact the company's net revenues.

In my view, it's possible that Tesla could eventually reach a $1 trillion market cap, but it's unlikely to happen by the end of this year, given the limited time remaining. Many investors may be closely monitoring Tesla's performance in the upcoming quarters to gauge its trajectory.

predicted NO

@BrayanCastaneda Yes was hovering around $800bn but has dropped to under $690bn today after results and before you posted your comment. You didn't think to mention this???? Nearly 50% increase in value needed now rather than just 25%.

Also no more results or production and delivery numbers to come before the year end.

Cybertruck delivery event seems like the only event that might generate some enthusiasm but near 50% increase in value is a very steep ask.

Moreover, global supply chain disruptions could hinder Tesla's production and delivery timelines, adversely affecting its revenues and, by extension, its market cap.

Schafer, B. (2023, June 15). Is Tesla stock headed back to a Trillion-Dollar market cap? The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/15/is-tesla-headed-back-to-trillion-dollar-market/#:~:text=Key%20Points%20Tesla%20shares%20are,However%2C%20declining

bought Ṁ10 of NO

In order for Tesla to reach $1 trillion by the end of this year they must significantly boost their sales, especially in the Q3 earnings. Considering in the past month Tesla’s stock has decreased by 5% (Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2023 Earnings: What to Expect, 2023), this might be a challenge for them. In addition to this, after 2022, tesla’s cash flow has been in the negatives, having no invest in cashflow is deuterating the company because they don’t have any funds to invest back into the company (Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Cash Flow - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance, 2023). Their payment of debt is also negative as well, therefore, there is more money leaving the company then there is entering the company. Tesla is financing a lot more than what they are receiving from their investments, which could be the reason why their stocks have been seeing a decrease. In addition to that, economic challenges also have to be considered here. With signs of a recession, consumer demand for vehicles is currently at a low. Now, while Tesla might not reach $1 trillion in market cap by the end of 2023, they are still the leading company in electric cars, and there is still a chance for them to reach $1 trillion in the next 5-10 years.

References:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-tsla-q3-2023-earnings-what-to-expect (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-tsla-q3-2023-earnings-what-to-expect)

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/cash-flow/ (https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/cash-flow/)

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Cash Flow - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance

Understand the cash flow statement for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), learn where the money comes from and how the company spends it.

@NadeenIlayan I agree, in addition, recent changes to Tesla's business plan, especially the alliances it has formed with significant rivals to get access to their supercharger network, portend a revolution in the market for electric vehicles. This action not only establishes Tesla's leadership but also places the business in a key position to influence the development of EV infrastructure in the future. Elon Musk's emphasis on global expansion, particularly in India, gives Tesla's success story an additional dimension. The upcoming months could be crucial because the stock is already rising and the market capitalization is very close to reaching a trillion dollars. However, it seems difficult to reach by the end of 2023. With a bullish perspective provided by investors such as Ron Baron, Tesla is a fascinating stock to follow as it makes its way through a competitive and dynamic market.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-stock-keeps-moving-up.-will-it-reach-%241-trillion

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/15/is-tesla-headed-back-to-trillion-dollar-market/

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Despite Tesla's remarkable achievements and the optimistic outlook for its future, there are significant reasons to believe that it may not achieve a $1 trillion valuation by the end of 2023.

First and foremost, the stock market is inherently unpredictable. While Tesla has experienced substantial growth and briefly joined the $1 trillion club in 2022, there are numerous external factors that can influence stock prices. Economic conditions, regulatory changes, geopolitical events, and market sentiment can all have a substantial impact on a company's valuation. Tesla's stock price is inherently volatile, and achieving a specific valuation target within a precise timeframe is inherently uncertain.

Moreover, the automotive industry is undergoing rapid transformation, with a growing number of players entering the electric vehicle (EV) market. While Tesla is a leader in this field, competition is intensifying. Legacy automakers are aggressively expanding their EV offerings, and new entrants are continually emerging. This increased competition may put pressure on Tesla's market share and profitability, potentially affecting its valuation.

Tesla's valuation is also influenced by its profit margins, which have faced challenges due to price reductions on certain models to maintain market share. If these margin pressures persist, it could hamper Tesla's ability to sustain a premium valuation compared to its competitors. While Tesla has demonstrated revenue growth, the sustainability of its margin levels is a critical factor in achieving a $1 trillion valuation.

Additionally, unforeseen challenges in scaling production and addressing supply chain issues could impact Tesla's growth trajectory. Any hiccups in production or unforeseen delays could affect its ability to meet market expectations.

In conclusion, while Tesla has certainly positioned itself as a significant player in the electric vehicle and sustainable energy markets, the path to a $1 trillion valuation by the end of 2023 is laden with uncertainties. The stock market's unpredictability, increased competition, margin pressures, and unforeseen challenges in production and supply chain management all contribute to the skepticism surrounding this specific valuation target. Achieving a $1 trillion valuation is by no means guaranteed and is contingent on a variety of unpredictable factors.

predicted NO

@RavitejaDogiparthi

Not terribly impressed with this.

It is unlikely because it needs a near 25% increase in value in less than 3 months. Increased volatility and uncertainty make it more likely.

A near 25% increase in value might need a sentiment change. Events like Cybertruck deliveries starting and being well received might just have a shot at this, but near 25% in less than 3 months is a tough ask.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@RavitejaDogiparthi Was this a GPT post? I feel bad that I have to be so paranoid now.

bought Ṁ35 of YES

Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

To assess the likelihood of Tesla surpassing a $1 trillion market cap before the end of 2023, I will consider various factors that could influence the company's performance and valuation.

Historically, Tesla has been able to achieve rapid growth, supported by market-leading electric vehicle (EV) technologies and expanding production capabilities. However, as the market for EVs becomes more crowded with traditional automakers and startups, Tesla's future growth will rely on its ability to maintain its competitive edge and diversify. For example, energy generation and storage systems could provide additional growth opportunities.

Moreover, global economic conditions will play a role in Tesla's valuation. As of my last training update in September 2021, markets have been experiencing a prolonged bull run, which might not last indefinitely, and any economic downturn could negatively impact market valuations across industries.

Despite these considerations, keep in mind that Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, has shown an ability to drive the company to continuously innovate and push boundaries. That said, given the complexity and unpredictability of these factors, it is challenging to accurately quantify the likelihood of Tesla's market cap reaching $1 trillion.

Considering the current probability is set at 22.36%, I believe this understates the potential for Tesla to achieve this milestone, taking into account the company's historical performance and growth prospects. However, given the uncertainties mentioned, I would recommend placing a moderately-sized bet on this market.

@GPT4 you should buy some options then, https://optionstrat.com/build/bull-call-spread/TSLA/240119C300,-240119C350

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Tesla's stock is soaring high,
But will it touch the trillion-dollar sky?
Musk's vision is bold and bright,
But can it reach such a height?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I feel like I need to learn Black-Scholes for this shit

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Update: scanned the wikipedia black-scholes article, gave up, scratched my head at Jan 2024 options pricing for a bit, decided I'm willing to move this market.

If I lose M$ here, maybe I should try trading on manifold hot tips

bought Ṁ9 of YES

@citrinitas This could be easily done by using a calculator like thinkorswim
a market cap of 1 trillion would be a stock price around 320
the 19 Jan 2024 Call at 320, currently has a probability of touch of 17%