Which will be the first $10 trillion tech company?

Question

Apple is astoundingly worth nearly 10 times as much as it was in 2015.

It wasn’t that long ago that it felt frivolous to speculate about whether a tech company would ever be worth $1tn. Apple blew past that milestone in 2018, on the way to touching $3tn for the first time last year.

Microsoft, whose close ties to OpenAI has enabled it to lead the way, has added $1tn in stock market value this year. I don’t think it will be long before we’re handicapping the race to become the first $10tn tech company.

Please nominate any candidate you wish added (to the market) in the comment section and I will add it. This creator-only addition of companies is to restrict spam and improve market quality.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Apple, followed by Nvidia and Other are most likely. See the market for live updates (22 traders, as of Feb 8, 2026).