@figo If there is a merger e.g. with SpaceX do we look at the combined group or just the electric vehicle and robot markets. It might be hard to value or disentangle part of a group.

@ChristopherRandles good question.

@traders I plan on doing my best to compute the total return (dividend re-invested) an owner of a TSLA share today would get. I assume AI will make such call easy to make by then

Today's share price is 392,65 and market cap is 1,23 trillion. Here are some scenarios

• If tomorrow TSLA raises 2 trillion, new shares are issued at the same price and 1 share is still worth the same, then I consider that the market cap remains 1.23t.

• if some day TSLA merges, is worth 1t when it merges with SpaceX that has a market cap of 2t, then I still account for 1t of valuation, but I also only account for 1/3 of valuation of the merged company going forward (so it'd have to reach 25.8t now)

• if TSLA does a complicated merger where each TSLA holder ends up with 1 TSLA share (worth a fraction of pre-merger) and one XXX share worth the rest. Then the continuous validation will track the floating value of these shares.

• if TSLA is worth 1t when they distribute 100m of dividend. now the market cap is 900m but I include a 1/0.9 factor to the valuation so for my calculation the inferred market cap is still 1b

One way to think of it is not is TSLA worth 8.6t but if I buy TSLA today at 392,65 and reinvest all coupons, will I get 8.6/1.23 times my money by EOY 2035.

I know it is a significant rewrite but this is probably the closest to what is in the contract, which I haven't read.

What do you think?

@figo
https://companiesmarketcap.com/

shows Tesla worth $1.47B

I assume / guess that Google Search

showing $1.21B is the market cap of that share type but there is another share class.

Also value when you created market 5 September 2025 was 350.84

Your answer wasn't what I expected but perhaps it is plausible and sensible if you adjust it to 8.6/1.47 times your money if you invested at a price of $350.84 on 5 September 2025.

@ChristopherRandles

Thanks for pointing at the more accurate market cap. So yes, the question should be "if I buy a share of TSLA today at 392,65 and reinvest dividends, will I get 8.6/1.47 times my money".

Why would you adjust for the variation since Sep 2025? has there be new issuance? dividends? If none, this would be equivalent to the same computation where you use Sep 25 share price and market cap so will stick to the numbers above.

@figo You created the question in Sep 2025 so the increase in value from 350.84 then to 392.65 now is the gain so far. Surely this should count towards the target? I don't see why you should wipe that gain out and start again today when 8 months have passed..


Tesla has never paid a dividend and has not launched any major public stock offerings or bond raises in the last year.

@ChristopherRandles

If no new share was issued and not dividend was distributed, then the starting point market cap was 350/392*1.47.

We can say that we are looking at whether 350 dollar in Sep would get you 8.6/sep_market_cap*350 or whether 392 today gets you 8.6/june_market_cap*392. Since sep_market_cap=june_market_cap/392*350 there is no difference.

I'll use whichever you prefer.

@figo Ah right sorry about that. I still think it makes sense to show the calculation working from the start point.

Possible issue:
Google tells me
"On September 5, 2025, Tesla's (TSLA) market capitalization was approximately $1.25 trillion."

But if I calculate 1.499B market cap at close * 350.84/399.15 this gives me $1.31757B for the market capitalisation.

As there was no need for any fund raising, my guess for the difference is shares issued to staff. That increase in market cap is therefore not a wealth gain for a shareholder. I am not sure whether it is going to be easy to keep track of the market cap increases due to shares given to staff. Any rights issues in future might also be a pain.

@ChristopherRandles

I consulted an (AI) friend. Here is what I got:
- the relevant definition is almost certainly the plain-vanilla one: Tesla equity market capitalization = TSLA share price × Tesla shares outstanding at that time.
- Baseline on 2025-09-25: Market cap ≈ $1.493T, Share price ≈ $423.39, Shares outstanding ≈ 3.526B
- So one TSLA share bought on Sep 25, 2025 would be worth about $2,411 the day the valuation reaches 8.5tn

So economic value of what TSLA is today becoming 8.5t would best be tested as follows:

"Has the economic value represented by one TSLA share on 2025-09-25 grown enough that Tesla has effectively reached the equivalent of an $8.5T market cap, after neutralizing splits, spin-offs, mergers, ticker changes, etc.?"

Definitions:

• M0 = Tesla market cap on 2025-09-25 = about 1.493 trillion

• P0 = TSLA share price on 2025-09-25 = about 423.39

• B(t) = descendant basket of 1 TSLA share held on 2025-09-25

• V(B(t)) = value of that basket at time t

The basket value is:

V(B(t)) = sum over all securities i of q(i,t) * price(i,t)

(with any cash considered reinvested).

So:

V(B(t)) = q1 * P1 + q2 * P2 + ... + qn*Pn + Cash

Examples:

• After a 3-for-1 split:

  • B(t) = 3 TSLA

  • V(B(t)) = 3 * TSLA_price

• After a spin-off:

  • B(t) = 1 TSLA + 0.2 SpaceX

  • V(B(t)) = TSLA_price + 0.2 * SpaceX_price

• After a stock merger:

  • B(t) = 0.7 XAI

  • V(B(t)) = 0.7 * XAI_price

The 8.5T test is:

V(B(t)) >= P0 * (8.5 / M0)

Plugging in the Sep 25 2025 values:

Threshold = 423.39 * (8.5 / 1.493)

Threshold ≈ 2411

Therefore:

8.5T-equivalent reached if V(B(t)) >= 2411 or equivalently V(B(t)) / 423.39 >= 5.693

I would personally use the latter as the canonical metric:

Tesla Ownership Index(t) = V(B(t)) / 423.39

Then:

• Index = 1.0 on 2025-09-25

• 8.5T reached when Index >= 5.693

This automatically handles splits, spin-offs, mergers, ticker changes, and stock dividends while remaining sensitive to actual dilution and capital raises.

The package has now been approved https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/06/tesla-shareholders-approve-elon-musks-1t-pay-package/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdx29qv4nvvo