Will Tetraspace have published a research paper on AI alignment by March 1, 2025?
14
317
2025
48%
chance

Resolves YES if, by the deadline, there is a research paper on AI alignment by the author Tetraspace West – or however she prefers to spell her name, it might be Tetra Jones or whatever. If I’m in doubt that an author of a paper is Tetraspace West, I will consult @TetraspaceWest on Twitter to confirm or deny it.

The market resolves YES if a peer-reviewed paper comes out from Tetraspace. It also resolves YES if something from Tetraspace is posted to ArXiv or to another open platform that looks reasonably like a research paper – I will make this judgment call. If there’s a written work which I find doubtful whether it’s an AI alignment research paper, I will consult someone knowledgeable about AI alignment research to be sure.

If there seems to be no such paper at the deadline, the market resolves NO.

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Did I miss anything? The only thing I've seen is https://twitter.com/TetraspaceWest/status/1765072132726530365#m.

@NiplavYushtun Well, see this for one thing

https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-tetraspace-quit-her-job-to-wor

also lurk moar, rtfm, skill issue, etc

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